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Upcoming Arbitrum Token Unlocks May Affect Prices

Aribitrum plans to unlock 93 million ARBs montly for the coming three years. And that's following a recent 1.1 billion ARB release

April 4, 2024 09:02 AM

Reading time: 1 minute, 43 seconds

TL;DR With the substantial 1.1 billion ARB unlock behind them, Arbitrum token holders now face the prospect of monthly releases that could sway the market. Nearly 93 million ARBs are set to enter circulation every month for the next three years, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.

While the crypto community has recently navigated through the 1.1 billion ARB unlock, the journey is far from over for holders of the Layer-2 (L2) token Arbitrum (ARB).

The market should prepare for more fluctuations and possible decreases in the token's value as nearly 93 million ARBs, valued at approximately $136 million, are scheduled to be released each month for the coming three years.

This continuous supply pertains mainly to Arbitrum team members and initial investors, who had only 25% of their holdings made available during the last unlock event in March.

Token unlocks are a common practice within the cryptocurrency sphere, involving the planned distribution of tokens to certain stakeholders over time. Such events are often viewed negatively by the market due to the potential increase in sell-side pressure from the additional tokens becoming available.

This perspective was supported by ARB's recent price action, which saw a 26% decline following the March unlock, a movement initiated even before the actual release of tokens.

The anticipation and eventual reality of the unlock seemed to trigger a noteworthy increase in large transactions, notably those exceeding $100,000, hinting at heightened activity from larger investors or 'whales'.

This trend persisted for days following the unlock, with the price dynamics suggesting that the urge to sell was more pronounced than the buying interest among market participants.

April's initial days further witnessed a spike in whale transactions, exacerbating the token's price decline. However, an interesting twist in the tale is the significant growth in whale holdings post-unlock.

This can be attributed to two main factors: the natural increase in holdings as tokens were distributed and the strategic accumulation of ARB by some at lower prices, seeing it as an opportunity.

Despite these challenges, the unfolding scenario presents a complex picture. On one hand, the scheduled releases could continue to pressure ARB’s market value. On the other, increased interest from large-scale investors might hint at a robust confidence in Arbitrum’s long-term prospects.

As the situation evolves, ARB holders and prospective investors alike will need to navigate these turbulent waters with caution and informed decision-making.

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