Odds of Joe Biden's Reelection Plummet on Polymarket
According to the predictions platform, the president's chances of winning are as low as 9%
July 5, 2024 11:00 AM
Reading time: 1 minute, 45 seconds
TL;DR The chances of President Joe Biden being reelected have sharply decreased on Polymarket. Speculation rises about Vice President Kamala Harris replacing him as the Democratic candidate. Former President Donald Trump remains the favorite.
The odds of United States President Joe Biden being reelected have fallen dramatically. On the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, his chances plummeted as low as 9%. Speculators question whether Vice President Kamala Harris will replace Biden as the Democratic candidate.
Biden's odds have since recovered slightly. They now stand at 10% in Polymarket's $226 million "Presidential Election Winner 2024" market. However, the numbers still reflect a troubling scenario for Biden supporters.
Trump Leading the Pack
Former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump is currently the favorite. He holds odds of 61% to win the 2024 election. Kamala Harris is in second place with 19% odds, positioning her as a strong contender.
The situation mirrors similar trends on other platforms. On PredictIt, Biden's share prices have dropped from $0.25 to $0.20. Harris has become the leading Democratic candidate on this platform, too. However, Trump still holds the highest-valued "Yes" shares at $0.58.
Concerns Over Biden's Fitness
The decline in Biden’s odds comes amid growing concerns about his fitness for a second term. Media reports and outside commentators have been increasingly vocal. According to CNN, Biden caused concern during a White House meeting on July 3. He joked, "I'm fine -- I don't know about my brain, though." This remark reportedly worried several U.S. governors.
Further fueling speculation, Biden has stated he will stop scheduling events after 8 pm to get more sleep. The next day, he made another blunder. In a radio interview, he mistakenly described himself as the "first black woman" to serve as U.S. President. This clip has since been widely circulated on social media.
Will Biden Drop Out?
Polymarket shows a 66% chance that Biden will drop out before the Nov. 4 U.S. election. Kamala Harris is seen as the most likely Democratic candidate to face off with Trump. Despite the mounting pressure, Biden has stressed that he has no intention of stepping down.
Related: Are politicians using crypto to influence the U.S. elections?
The coming months will be crucial for Biden. As speculation continues to swirl, all eyes will be on the Democratic Party and its strategy for the 2024 election.
