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Joe Biden's Election Dropout Odds Rises on Polymarket

By Olivier Acuña | TH3FUS3 Chief Editor

July 18, 2024 06:28 AM

Reading time: 1 minute, 54 seconds

TL;DR Crypto bettors on Polymarket have driven up the odds of President Joe Biden dropping out of the race following his positive COVID-19 test. The betting odds now stand at 66%, with more than $16.4 million riding on the wager. Biden's chances of winning the presidential election have also decreased.

Crypto bettors on the decentralized blockchain betting site Polymarket have driven up the odds of President Joe Biden's exit from the re-election race.

That follows revelations that President Biden tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday. The betting odds now stand at 66% for him bowing out, nearing the odds reflected one week ago when several allies signaled it was time for him to step aside.

Polymarket data shows more than $16.4 million riding on the wager. This makes it one of the largest bets on the prediction market platform that promises 'live, unbiased 2024 election forecasts.'

Betting activity on Polymarket rose following an Associated Press report that President Biden tested positive for COVID-19 while traveling in Las Vegas, where he was scheduled to address the National Convention for UnidosUS, a Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization.

The White House reported that President Biden would head to his home in Delaware to recover from COVID. They assured the public that he would 'continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time.'

The news came mere hours after Biden mentioned in an interview that he would consider dropping out if faced with a 'medical condition.'

Impact on Election Odds

Biden's dropout odds on Polymarket had slipped below 50% last Friday. However, the recent COVID-19 diagnosis has significantly impacted his chances.

Biden's odds of being the outright winner of the U.S. presidential election in November have dropped to 13%. This shift has allowed Vice President Kamala Harris, who has frequently flipped her boss in the wager, to return to second place.

More than $268 million is currently being wagered on the question of who will win the presidential election. Former President Donald Trump has held the top spot for weeks. He is now favored to win by crypto bettors at 69%.

Despite the recent developments, punters still expect Biden to be the ultimate Democratic party nominee. Over $125 million is riding on that bet, with Biden still the top prospect at a 49% chance, according to Polymarket data.

'Biden's chances have dramatically shifted following his COVID-19 diagnosis,' said an analyst.

The ongoing developments have added a new layer of uncertainty to the upcoming election. As the situation evolves, bettors and political analysts will closely monitor the implications of Biden's health on his re-election campaign.

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