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Hype or Hope? Bitcoin's Future Amidst the Halving

The post-halving scarcity might not be enough to trigger a new bull run, challenging the crypto community's expectations.

April 19, 2024 05:20 AM

Reading time: 1 minute, 27 seconds

TL;DR With the Bitcoin halving event drawing near, analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan share a cautious outlook. They emphasize the role of macroeconomic factors and diminishing venture capital funding in shaping Bitcoin's price.

As the Bitcoin community anticipates the upcoming halving event, scheduled for April 20, leading financial analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are skeptics.

The event, known for historically triggering price surges by halving the rewards miners receive, thereby reducing the new supply of Bitcoin, is under the microscope.

Goldman Sachs' Perspective Goldman Sachs analysts caution against expecting a repeat of past halving events, pointing out that other factors, like the supply-demand dynamics and interest in Bitcoin ETFs, will play more significant roles in determining Bitcoin's future price.

"Caution should be taken against extrapolating the past cycles and the impact of halving, given the respective prevailing macro conditions," they noted, highlighting the current economic landscape marked by high inflation and interest rates.

JPMorgan's analysts echo this sentiment, predicting a potential price decline post-halving. They argue that Bitcoin's price, significantly over its volatility-adjusted comparison with gold, appears overbought. The bank suggests a lack of venture capital funding in the crypto sector further supports a bearish outlook.

"We do not expect bitcoin price increases post-halving as it has already been priced in," wrote analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

Both banks underscore the importance of macroeconomic conditions, which differ significantly from previous cycles.

With interest rates above 5% in the United States and inflation pressures mounting, the economic climate may not support a bullish surge following the halving. That contrasts sharply with the crypto community's hopeful narrative that the event will prompt another significant rally.

Despite the cautionary stance, the notion that Bitcoin acts as an inflation hedge remains, offering hope for those optimistic about its long-term value proposition.

As the halving approaches, the market awaits to see if the historical pattern will hold or if the analysts' predictions of a divergent outcome will materialize.

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