BTC Price 'Range Lows' Still on the Table

In a recent analysis shared on X, Cole Garner, a well-regarded crypto analyst, has hinted at a potential 'capitulation' for Bitcoin markets.

Garner's insights delve into the interplay between global liquidity trends and Bitcoin's price trajectory. While the long-term outlook suggests gains, Garner warns that the immediate future might surprise many traders.

By examining current onchain activities, Garner has identified a short-term decline in liquidity, which may soon be mirrored in Bitcoin's price.

He briefly summarized his findings with the statement, "Liquidity on-chain is tightening: I smell capitulation incoming." Garner believes such a scenario is a common precursor to a total bull market.

The Role of Central Banks

Central banks are the origin of onchain liquidity, and Garner uses the Liquid Vision index as his tool to gauge this. The index measures the liquidity provided by global central banks. According to Garner, the Federal Reserve or Japan might step in if China doesn't initiate a liquidity boost. However, he warns that the market could face further declines before any recovery.

Recent policy adjustments by China's central bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve are pivotal in this context. Last month, China's central bank launched a significant economic stimulus package but recently held off on further actions, leaving risk-asset traders disheartened.

Stablecoin Supply and Market Expectations

Garner also mentioned the decrease in the supply of significant stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), a decline he says could indicate broader market trends.

He speculates that Bitcoin might hit 'range lows' before achieving the much-anticipated $100,000 mark. However, he remains optimistic, pointing out that the market structure is still bullish despite potential dips.

Bitcoin Kicks the Can on 'Uptober'

Despite the looming challenges, some market participants remain hopeful for a BTC/USD turnaround by the end of October.

A rethink of China's stimulus strategy might increase capital inflows into crypto. Meanwhile, seasoned trader Peter Brandt predicts BTC/USD could reach $135,000 within a year, assuming key support levels hold.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $61,000, reflecting a 4% monthly decline.